Hi everybody would you believe me if I told you that blinket zepto and instamart they are driving Amazon and Flipkart absolutely crazy and there is a chance that in the next 10 years blinket which is an Indian company it could become bigger than the legendary Amazon itself after tasting success in food delivery and later in pit Commerce.
Through blinket somato is now planning something more ambitious that zomato is now becoming a front runner blinket is about 4 to 50% of the size of zomato right now blinket would drive more value for shareholders in the next 10 years than zomato so I think it’s a matter of some number of months before blinket becomes bigger than Z and as we speak.
There is a tectonic shift in the Indian market that is making it possible in 2022 we made a video on dunzo and zepto explaining their unit economics and how the idea of quick Commerce itself is not floating well at all instant food delivery segment many questions were raed the B delivery partner safety as well as the 10minute food delivery.
Whether it’s even possible or is it simply a marketing gimmick as we’ve seen with all the d2c players post pandemic CAC or customer acquisition cost has increased as well so then how does it make sense for uh you know someone to be in business like this and be profitable and that was true in 2022 but two months ago I saw this LinkedIn post by shantonu.
Desande who runs a company called The Bombay shaving company and he said that they saw a day when they sold more products through blinket than they sold via Amazon and it is so stunning to know this because two years back blinket sales were at 0% of Amazon for Bombay shaving company a year back it was at 10% of Amazon and now blinket sales are.
Crossing 100% of Amazon and the reason why this is a very big deal is because today if you have your brand on Amazon it’s no big deal at all because it’s too crowded today but 10 years back if your brand was on Amazon you had the golden opportunity to drive insane sales and this is where we saw the rise of giant d2z companies like like boat Mama Earth.
And noise so just like Amazon 10 years back today if you understand why blinket and instamart are revolutionary it could be a huge opportunity for you so as usual as a business nerd I got deep into every part of the quick Commerce industry to try and find out what exactly has fundamentally changed in the quick.
Commerce revolution of India and you know what I found something absolutely mindblowing so in this episode today you are going to get a sneak peek into one of the most valuable reports in the history of Indian consumer market and this report will tell you how on Earth did a struggling unit like blinket start growing faster than zomato how did quick.
Commerce go from being a land mine to a gold mine in Just 2 years why does it look like blinket could beat a giant like Amazon in the next 10 years in India what exactly is their business strategy that is making it possible and most importantly what are the business lessons that we need to learn from this blinket versus Amazon case study.
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With unlimited hosting support and a free custom domain for a year so if you find this useful check out Odo from the link in the description let’s start from the basics in 2022 we calculated the unit economics of quick Commerce companies and when we did this case study we highlighted three.
Major challenges with the quick Commerce industry and because of these problems all the companies in the industry were in losses so the question is what exactly were these problems well well to understand that you’ll have to understand some math so let’s dive into it according to this Economic Times article it costed anywhere between 25 to.
40 laks to set up a dark store and a typical dark store is about 2,000 to 2,500 ft large it has a total of 34 staff at the store who are mostly Packers the average order value was 350 to 400 rupees for the industry in 2022 and the gross profit margins of the companies were between 15% and 20% now what is gross margin it is your total.
Revenue minus the cost of goods and services divided by Revenue so if you shop for 400 rupees which includes bread milk and vegetables then the gross margin is revenue which is 400 rupees minus the cost price of the products divided by Revenue so here if the company is getting a 20% margin then the cost of products to the company is 320.
Rupees and the gross margin is 80 rupees so this is pretty amazing right 80 rupees profit per order and there are hundreds of orders that are going out well not really because this is not net profit but gross margin so this 8 rupes margin does not include the indirect fixed cost like office expenses rent administrative cost or even delivery.
Cost because back then delivery was made free no matter how less you ordered because back then most of these quick Commerce companies they were giving out free deliveries regardless of how less your order value was and this last mile delivery cost was one of the most expensive cost variables in the chain because if you do the math a delivery.
Boy gets a salary of at least 25 to 35k and on an average a rider clogged 20 to 30 deliver delies a day back then so we took a save average of 30,000 R salary with 25 deliveries a day so now we have 750 deliveries a month and the cost per delivery was 40 rupees and sometimes this cost could even go up to 60 rup per order because of inefficiencies but.
Right now let’s not get there and let’s consider this cost to be 40 rupees now if you take out 40 rupees delivery charge from a gross margin of 80 rupees we only have 40 rupees margin left per order now according to money control proos research this dark store in Mumbai touched 600 orders a day back then so assuming 600 orders per day they would.
Have 18,000 orders per month so with 18,000 orders in a month with a 40 rupees margin excluding delivery that leaves the store with 7.2 lakh rupees per month but this store also has 34 employees with a salary ranging between 18 to 20 game so even if we take the lower limit of 18,000 rupes the salary cost itself amounts to 6.12 lakh rupees.
Now add up rent or installment for the place electricity bills software marketing and maintenance and this clearly looks like a cash training store right so in summary from this case study we could figure out that there were three major challenges in the Qui Commerce industry number one the average order value of qu Commerce companies was.
Dwindling between 350 and 400 rupees and with such a small aov it was very difficult to make a profit number two gross margins of 20% were highly unlikely because even back then dmart was operating at a 16% gross margin and thirdly the delivery cost was eating into the gross margin of these companies because if their gross margin was 80.
Rupees and 40 to 60 rupees was going into just delivery then you could imagine it was practically a cash burning machine so the question is what could be the solution to this problem well if you remember back then in this case study we stated that if we only increase the average order value from 400 to 550 rupees then suddenly the same.
Dark store will become a cash machine how well this is how the math will change if you increase the average order value from 400 to 550 rup so now let’s consider the average order value as 550 rupe and now if you do the math with 600 orders a day and 18,000 orders a month the equation looks completely different a 20% gross margin would be 110 rupes.
Deducting delivery cost of 40 rupees we have 70 rupes per order multiply that by 18,000 and we suddenly have 12.6 lakh rupees in gross margin excluding the delivery charge and now if you take out salaries we would still have a comfortable 6.84 lakh rupes in margins to pay for maintenance marketing rent software and other expenses per dark.
Store and when it comes to software Services if you have 100 to 200 profitable dark stores then the cost incurred per store decreases by a large extent so it’s basically a game of skill and you know what this is what we had stated back then where we said that if the average order value goes from 400 rupes to 550 rupees then quick Commerce.
Will become a gold mine industry and you know what guys this is exactly what has happened in the past 1 year if you see this picture while the average order value of zepto stands at 450 to 500 rupees for instamart it stands at 500 to 550 rupees for BB now it stands at 500 rupees but for blinket it stands at 635 rupees which means the quick.
Commerce wave of India has officially crossed its sweet spot of 550 rupees average order value so now the question over here is how on Earth did the average order value of these quick Commerce companies shoot up from 350 to 400 rupees all the way up to 635 rupees well this is where the three sees of e-commerce come in you see in.
The e-commerce Market there are three factors that determine the success of an e-commerce company convenience cost and catalog and every major e-commerce player tries to capitalize on one or two of these 3c’s for example Mishu is majorly focused on cost big basket is majorly focused on cost and catalog but back then they were also focused on.
Convenience with their definition of convenience being 2 hours or one day delivery similarly Amazon and Flipkart were focused on cost catalog and convenience with their definition of convenience back then being one day delivery so if you see big basket and Amazon’s Benchmark of convenience is no longer The Benchmark in the market.
Because now The Benchmark of convenience is not one day it is 20 freaking minutes and this is the reason why there is a big big threat to Amazon and here’s why you will tell me bro what are you saying if I have to buy a kg of potatoes and dmart sells it at 30 rupees and blinket sells it at 40 rupees that is a 30% increase in cost of course I’ll go to.
Dmart and I am willing to wait longer to save cost so this quick Commerce it’s just a marketing gimmick well guess what this is exactly what my mom told me but when I spoke to hundreds of other people from a different income level the answer was very different and you know this whole angle got me back to this blue menes report which says that India is.
Not one market it has three different markets for those who don’t know India can be categorized as India 1 which is 30 million households with an average income of $155,000 India two which has 300 million people with an average income of $3,000 per person and India 3 which has 1 billion people with an average income of $1,000 per person and.
You can see these three categories of people in India as three different countries which are Mexico Indonesia and a subsaharan African country and this is based on their consumption levels because if you look at the consumption of India 1 it is so disproportionately high as compared to India 2 and India 3 that it is absolutely mind-blowing.
Because if you look at this chart India one alone consumes 89% of the entire beauty products in India 70% of dining in India and 79% of the entire food and beverage consumption in India so 120 million people as in less than 10% of the Indian population is consuming three times more than the rest of the 1.3 billion people combined and this is a.
Drastic difference in consumption and not just that look at this graph India 1 is the one that actually buys an iPhone and India 2 and India 3 combined by actual products on a daily basis which includes all of your products like surf Exel whim and axe type products but even then the revenue from iPhone alone is set to surpass the revenue of the entire.
H umbrella in 2024 so iPhone alone will generate more Revenue than whim Ren Dove pawns life boy kissan horx and a dozen other brands combined so do you realize India 1 is a mammoth and now if you want to place the Indian e-commerce Market in these segments you will see the magic of quick Commerce in this chart you will see that India 3 r buys online and it.
Prefers a Kira store or a local shop because India 3 is only focused on cost India 2 buys from misho Flipkart or Amazon because they’re focused on both cost and catalog and India 1 is so focused on catalog and convenience that it doesn’t really care about cost at all so whichever platform offers them the right product in the quickest possible.
Time they will go ahead and buy the product from that platform now just to give you a more relatable angle we can understand India 1 India 2 India 3 in the entertainment context India 3 consumes YouTube for free because they don’t mind ads at all India 2 probably got Amazon Prime because of Amazon music and Prime subscription so they do mind.
Ads but not enough to pay for ad free content by itself so if you give them value for money then they’ll definitely buy a product and indiaan pays for Netflix Prime and even has a YouTube subscription all on autopay on their credit card because in most cases they would want to subscription simply because they don’t want ads and they.
Don’t even want the headache of not having a particular otd subscription when they want to watch something so do you realize this is a drastic difference in thinking between India 1 2 and 3 so from this consumer Behavior itself you can sense how rich the India 1 customer is right so to put that straight the customer in India 1 is giving the.
E-commerce Market of India three incredible superpowers number one because the customer doesn’t bother so much about cost automatically the average order value increases number two because the customer doesn’t bother so much about cost and cares more about convenience in exchange for this convenience you can increase your.
Margins and charge them a premium and lastly when it comes to catalog because this segment of the customer consumes more than the rest of the population it gives you the golden opportunity to increase your catalog along with cost and if you notice the evolution of blinket swiggy and septo this is exact ly what they have done in the past 1 1.
And a half years firstly instead of making delivery free they started charging the customers a delivery fee in addition to the order value and they sometimes even charge a high demand fee secondly their products are priced at a premium as compared to other marketplaces for example look at this comparison this is the cost of milk on.
Amazon and blinket and while this Amal product sells for 70 rupes on Amazon it sells at 80 rupes on blinket now you’ll tell me bro 2 rupees car difference is no big deal at all because every other platform will have this minor difference well that is right that is the reason why I got you more examples a bottle of Thumbs Up cost 38 rupees on Amazon but.
45 rupees on blinket now if you know the fmcg market you will know that fmcg is such a Cutthroat industry that even a one rupee increase in price is a very big deal for the company because India is a very very price sensitive Market but here blinket is charging you 7 rupees extra as in an 8 18% Premium Plus delivery fee simply because of the.
Convenience that it offers you which is 10 or 20 minutes delivery and when it comes to electronics it’s even crazier while Amazon sells this car charger for 377 rupees on blinket it costs 449 rupees which is again a 19% premium on such a high price product and by the way this 377 rupees includes the margin of Amazon also so blinket gets the margin.
Of Amazon Plus A9 % premium plus a delivery fee and if these products are still selling do you realize the quick Commerce companies have an extraordinary advantage of escaping the priz war and they can command more margins because India 1 is not price sensitive at all India 1 is convenience sensitive and what is convenience for them it is.
Saving of time as a result 10 or 20 minutes delivery is a very big deal for India 1 as a result that premium makes it worth it and thirdly while in 2022 blinket and swiggy only sold groceries today blinkit sells everything from groceries to meat to electronics to shirts to even a PlayStation 5 so with such a drastic increase in catalog as.
More and more people got habituated to the convenience of quick Commerce the average order value and the number of orders per dark stores they have shot up drastically this is the reason why the average order value of blinket has touched 635 rupees and this 635 rupees does not include the delivery fee platform fee or the high traffic fee or.
The high demand fee whatever you would like to call it and Cher on the cake is that when we spoke to our ground sources we were told that even a basic low performing dark store today gets a minimum of 1,00 to 1,200 orders a day so do you realize from 2022 to 2024 we have gone from 600 orders per day to 1,200 orders per per day per dark store and.
For blinket today the average orders per day stand at 1,400 orders per day per dark store and this is what ladies and gentlemen gives rise to something absolutely magical in fact as the industry is evolved the dark stores now have a mother store which also comes with its own cost of handling so this time instead of making my assumptions.
And giving you a crude calculation we looked at a financial report from JM financial and they have estimated the latest unit economics of blinket to the best of their ability now the disclaimer of here is that people from here on the content might get a little heavier for you because I’m going to bloat out a lot of numbers but don’t worry about it we.
Will try to represent these numbers in the simplest way possible using a table and even if you’re not able to understand a lot of things at the end of the segment just take a screenshot and you will understand everything okay if this is clear to you let’s get started first let’s start with Revenue in Revenue we have warehousing services.
Plus Marketplace commissions which gets them 44.4 CR rupees which translates to 74 rupees per order and income comes to 124 CR at 22 rupees per order customer fees which includes delivery fees handling fees and other fees it comes out to be 105.6 CR rupees or 19 rupees per order so total revenue is 644 CR which is a.
Revenue of 115 rupe per order if this is clear to you let’s come to direct cost here the platform discounts and incentives come out to be 11.2 CR rupees which comes to 2 rupes per order dark store operation cost comes to 120 CR or 22 rupes per per order mid mile delivery as in the cost of delivery from the mother Warehouse to the dark store cost.
106 CR rupees or 19 rupees per order last mile delivery as in the delivery to the final customer cost 2 45.5 Gres or 44 rupes per order packaging cost plus wastage plus communication Cost Plus support services including the payment Gateway cost about 75 CR rupes or 13 rupees per aut so the total estimated cost comes out to be 558 CR or 100 r.
Rupes per order so here the contribution margin comes out to be 15 rupees per order now the question over here is is this contribution margin the same as profit margin of blinket well not at all there is a slight difference between contribution margin and profit margin so pay attention to this very very carefully because this is a very.
Important concept and as usual we’ll try to understand this using a simple example you see in a business operation like blanket there are two types of costs involved fixed cost and variable cost what is the difference between both these costs variable cost will increase with orders and fixed cost will remain constant even if the number of orders.
Increases so let’s say there is a blinket dark store in fixed cost we will have cost like rent of the dark store salaries of the Packers and electricity bills so if you look at these expenses regardless of whether I process 100 ERS per day or th000 orders per day the cost of my rent salaries of Packers and electricity bills all of them will not.
Change at all but when you look at variable cost like purchase of inventory packaging and delivery cost these are the costs that will change with the number of orders so if I process 100 orders a day then my inventory coming in will be worth 60,000 Rupees but tomorrow if my store starts processing 10,000 orders a day then I will have to order.
Inventory worth 60 lakh rupees similarly today if I pack 100 orders at 2 rupees per order it will cost me 200 rupes for packaging but tomorrow if I process 1,000 orders it will cost me 2 into 1,000 which is 2,000 Rupees so while fixed costs will not change with scale the variable cost will change with scale which is why when we did the unit.
Economics we did not include rent or electricity bill at all because with scale the fixed cost per order will actually decrease for example if my rent is 1 lakh rupees and I process 10,000 orders a month my rent paid per order comes out to be 10 Rupees per order but if I start processing 1 lakh orders per month because my rent is still the same.
At 1 lakh rupees the rent paid per order will cost only 1 rupe per order so in short if you look at the difference between both these costs in the equation fixed cost will not change with increase in orders and as you process more and more orders the fixed cost per order will actually decrease and this is nothing but economies of skill but when.
It comes to variable cost even though the per order cost might not change as we increase the number number of orders the cost per order stays the same this is the difference between fixed cost and variable costs and if this sounds a little confusing to you it’s completely okay please RND and listen to the example again and you will understand it.
Better but if you’ve understood this you can understand the difference between contribution margin and net margin if you look at contribution margin it is equal to revenue minus variable cost but if you look at profit margin it is revenue minus fixed cost plus variable cost so if a store does 1 lakh rupees in Revenue at and has a variable cost of.
70,000 rupes then the contribution margin is 1 lakh rupes minus 70,000 rupes equal to 30,000 rupes as in 30,000 rupees is now left with me to cover my fixed cost now you might say bro why do we calculate contribution margin why can’t we just look at profit margin good question and here’s my answer you see when you look at contribution margin you.
Can check if the economics make sense per order or not for example let’s say my rent is 30,000 rupes so if I make 30 RUP per order as contribution margin and today I process 1,000 orders a month then I will only Break Even because I am left with only 30,000 rupes in contribution margin which is completely going away in fixed cost but here’s.
Where if I Market my platform well and increase the scale then something magical happens if I go from 1,000 orders to 2,000 orders then I will make 60,000 rupees in contribution margin pay the same 30,000 rupees in rent and make a profit of 30,000 rupees so this way I will know how much scale do I have to acheve achieve to cover my fixed cost.
And then make a profit in this case I know that if I process less than 1,000 orders I will not make a profit but with the same store if I process 2,000 orders then I will make a profit this is the reason why contribution margin is calculated so that we can understand if a particular business can make a profit with scale or not and if it can make a.
Profit at what scale can it make a profit if this is clear to you let’s come back to Blink it here we saw that their average order value just shot up to 635 rupees because of which their contribution margin is coming to 2.4% so with scale blinket can achieve net profitability very very soon and as the order value increases the.
Contribution margin will increase even more to help blinket achieve more profitability why because as the scale increases the fixed cost will go down as a result the profit margin will increase this is the story of the evolution of quick Commerce in India and after all this story it brings us to the last part of the episode and that are the business.
Lessons that we need to learn from the rise of quick Commerce and the opportunities that we have as entrepreneurs of the 21st century in the Indian consumer Market lesson number one India one is this rare segment of customers in this population of 1.4 billion that cares more about time and convenience and the rest of India is.
Price sensitive so if you’re a premium brand and you do not sell on instamart or blinket or zepto you are making a big big mistake because now the volumes are surging the average order values are going up and the discovery is easier as compared to what it will be 2 years later so spend money on ads and get yourself listed in all these platforms.
As soon as possible lesson number two as an investor this thesis formation needs to be done by you and your team on a yearly basis and like we made a thesis last year and predicted The Sweet Spot of profitability of quick Commerce you and your team should study every industry form your thesis and then invest in businesses because this will.
Give you a far better idea about a gold mine way before everybody else figures out or you can just subscribe to think school and get everything within a press of a button but anyways lastly I said this two years back when zomato got listed zomato has the most valuable asset in the world which is data so now zum knows which colony in juu orders.
From a premium restaurant with an aov of 2,000 Rupees and which colony in juu looks for discounts before ordering and this gives them an advantage of placing their dark stores in very accurate places as compared to an Amazon or Flipkart so the lesson over here is that no matter how small or big a business you are the question that you need to.
Ask yourself is how much data are you collecting on a daily basis and how are you using your data to build a barrial to entry for your competition this is the food for thought that you need to have from this case study in this case zomato and sui both are using their data mind to build a formidable barrier to entry against giants like Flipkart and.
Amazon and more importantly a segment of their business which looked like an experiment it is now about to become bigger than their mainstream business itself and that itself is a testament of what data and usage of data can do and this is what is resulting into another Saga of business war between blinket swiggy Amazon Flipkart and zepto so.
Amazon and Flipkart are going to go head-to-head against blinket sui and zepto and this is going to be an interesting case study to start stud and as usual I just cannot wait to go through countless research papers so that I can give you the best case studies possible that’s all from my S to today guys I just hope you learned.
Something valuable and I just hope you’re able to digest all the complex information that were presented in this case study if you learned something Val please make sure to the like button in order to make you baba happy and for more such insightful business and political case studies please subscribe to our Channel thank you so much for.
Watching I will see you in the next one bye-bye
